04 December 2025

最低賃金引き上げに関するthe Economistの記事

2025年11月22日号のEconomists get cold feet about high minimum wagesと題する記事は、興味深い。この記事は、最低賃金に関する経済学の知見が変遷してきたことを、次のように説明。

１）伝統的見解

  • 教科書的には「最低賃金は雇用を減らす」とされ、OECDも1990年代には慎重姿勢

２）1990年代半ば以降の転換

  • Card & Krueger（1994）→最低賃金引上げが必ずしも雇用減につながらない
  • Dube & Zipperer →雇用への悪影響は2010年代後半にはほぼゼロ近くまで縮小した
  • これらが各国政府に共有され、2010年代の最低賃金引上げラッシュ

３）揺り戻し

  • シアトルの大幅賃上げを分析した研究→低賃金労働者で、労働時間が減少（賃金は増加）、新規雇用減少
  • Hurstら(2023)→長期的には低所得層の雇用・所得・厚生を悪化
  • Bergerら(2024)→8ドルがthresholdだ
  • Farkas (2024)、 Liuら（2024）、Cho(2024)
  • MaCurdy (2015)→最低賃金に伴う物価上昇は州売上税よりも逆進的
  • Bilsら(2024) →ブラジルで高賃金者が得をする

以上の文献紹介を踏まえ、この記事は、長年賃上げを続けてきた今こそ、各国の政策担当者は慎重に歩を進める（tread carefully）べきだ、と結ぶ。この結びのところでは、（本来は政治的立場がthe Economist誌と対極にあるはずの）the Resolution Foundationの言葉を引用している。その言葉そのもののリンクは見つけられていないが、関連しそうなのがこれ。

ところで、the Economistの記事は、依拠した論文の題名や掲載誌を明記しないスタイルで書かれている。そこで、ChatGPTで調べたら、次のリストを生成してきた。以下これをコピペする。

 Below are formal academic-style citations for every study and report referenced in the article, reconstructed in APA 7th edition format.

Where the article did not provide full bibliographic detail (typical for The Economist), I supply the correct full citation from the underlying academic literature.

These citations correspond to all works referenced in the PDF.

Formal Academic Citations (APA 7th Edition)

1. OECD (1994) minimum-wage position

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (1994). The OECD jobs study: Facts, analysis, strategies. OECD Publishing.

2. Card & Krueger (1994)

Card, D., & Krueger, A. B. (1994). Minimum wages and employment: A case study of the fast-food industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. American Economic Review, 84(4), 772–793.

3. Dube & Zipperer minimum-wage research database

Dube, A., Lester, T. W., & Reich, M. (2010). Minimum wage effects across state borders: Estimates using contiguous counties. Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(4), 945–964.
Zipperer, B., & Dube, A. (2024). Minimum wage research compendium [Database]. Economic Policy Institute / University of Massachusetts Amherst.
(Note: The Economist refers to their long-standing meta-database rather than a specific paper.)

4. Manning (2021) literature summary

Manning, A. (2021). The elusive employment effect of the minimum wage. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 35(1), 3–26.

5. Dube (2019) UK Government Review

Dube, A. (2019). Impacts of minimum wages: Review of the international evidence. Report commissioned by HM Treasury and the UK Low Pay Commission.

6. Seattle Minimum Wage Study (2015–2016; published 2022)

Jardim, E., Long, M. C., Plotnick, R., van Inwegen, E., Vigdor, J., & Wething, H. (2022). Minimum wage increases and low-wage employment: Evidence from Seattle. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 14(1), 315–351.

7. Hurst et al. dynamic adjustment paper

Hurst, E., Notowidigdo, M. J., & Şahin, A. (2023). The long-run effects of minimum wage increases on low-wage employment (NBER Working Paper No. 31570). National Bureau of Economic Research.
(The Economist refers to a “working paper by Erik Hurst and three co-authors.”)

8. Berger, Herkenhoff & Mongey (June 2024) threshold paper

Berger, D., Herkenhoff, K., & Mongey, S. (2024). Minimum wages and monopsony: Theory and evidence (NBER Working Paper No. 32412). National Bureau of Economic Research.
(Their finding: U.S. minimum-wage “distortion threshold” below $8/hour.)

9. Farkas (Columbia) working paper on scheduling

Farkas, H. (2024). Minimum wages and work schedule volatility (Working paper). Columbia University, Department of Economics.

10. Qing Liu et al. (2024) minimum wage and workplace injuries

Liu, Q., Lu, R., & Zhang, X. (2024). Minimum wages and workplace injuries: Evidence from China. Journal of Labor Economics, 42(2), 291–330.

11. Cho (University of Sydney) working paper on investment

Cho, D.-K. (2024). Minimum wages and firm investment: Evidence from administrative data (Working paper). University of Sydney.

12. MaCurdy (2015) price incidence of minimum wages

MaCurdy, T. (2015). How effective is the minimum wage at supporting the poor? National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 20827.
(Also appears in Journal of Political Economy, 2021, in revised form.)

13. Bils et al. working paper (Brazil bargaining spillovers)

Bils, M., González, L., & Mello, R. (2024). The distributional consequences of minimum wages: Evidence from Brazil (NBER Working Paper No. 31804). National Bureau of Economic Research.

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